Sea Level Prediction Model for Colombo Coastal Area Using Matlab Software

Abstract

Sea level rise can be explained as an increase in the volume of water in the oceans of the world. But the rates of rise over local areas are variable. There are several reasons for the rise of the sea level; mainly thermal expansion of the sea and melting of ice caps. Sea level has significant impact on construction industry near coastal areas in the world. It affects Sri Lankan coastal areas also, especially in the Colombo coastal area. So, it is necessary to do an analysis on the tide gauge data collected from 2006-2018 in the Colombo coastal area, and build a model to predict the sea level to minimize the impact from rising sea level for future construction projects. The tide gauge data collected can be displayed as a frequency distribution with time as the x axis and Sea Level as the y axis. Missing values will be filled with linear interpolation. Then the wave type distribution will be decomposed until a residual can be gained from it using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method. After that the residual will be selected from the Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) that has been created from the EMD process. The selected residual will be then curve fitted using a polynomial interpolation technique of a higher degree. Then the fitted curve extrapolated to a given time domain, following which the prediction results can be given. Analysis of the sample data of 8 months of Tide gauge data resulted in an unreliable prediction result but it was closer to the current prediction levels of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.