Changing Dynamics in the Indian Ocean: Geostrategic Competition and Challenges for Sri Lanka

Abstract

The Indian Ocean has become an area for geostrategic competition since there ere are strategic security groupings and contest for influence. The uni-polar world dominated by the word`s sole super power, the USA, is being challenged by emerging super powers such as China, India, Russia and Japan. The Indian Ocean plays a key role in this Asian Century. This ocean is heavily militarized and nuclearized, and consist of large number of flash points, which can erupt into a conflict anytime. There is an unofficial "cold-war" brewing up here. The Indian Ocean is also the world`s economic life line in trade and is considered as the energy super highway. There are many players either in, or interested in the Indian Ocean and these include large number of non-state actors as well. Maintaining the freedom of maritime commerce and a rule based international maritime order in this ocean is essential for peace and prosperity of the whole world. Sri Lanka, which is located in the centre of this ocean, is subjected to spheres of influence of major players and need to charter its course very strategically in the future. Sri Lanka`s destiny has always been shaped by the ocean and its location. All invasions have come across the sea. The country`s future lies on how it exploits the blue ocean to her advantage. Sri Lanka cannot remain immune from what is happening in the neighbourhood and even the Western Pacific, and need to make extremely calculated choices to face the emerging realities and narratives of the ocean surrounding the country. This paper is based on an exploratory research method to understand the way forward for Sri Lanka in these turbulent waters. The data collection and analysis is based on qualitative interviews and literature review and analysis will be based on the grounded theory.