Box-Jenkins Approach to Forecast Monthly Gold Price in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Depending on recent records, the price of gold has been rising day by day more than the past; similar characteristics has been shown in Sri Lankan gold price as well. What would be the causes behind this? Basically, this study has been carried out on two levels. For first level, we constructed models to forecast monthly gold price. The data was mined form World Gold Council and Central Bank of Sri Lanka. The sample data of gold price were gathered from 2007 January to 2016 March in the currency of US dollars per troy ounce. It was converted into Sri Lankan rupees per 22 carats. 75% of data were used to build the model and remaining data were used to forecast the gold price and to check the accuracy of the model. Box-Jenkins, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology has been used to build forecasting models.