| dc.description.abstract | —Consumption of electricity is growing each
year in Sri Lanka due to industrialization, urbanization,
modernization. Forecasting electricity consumption is
highly important when deciding on investment and
construction. Therefore, this study is focused to develop
suitable statistical models for forecasting monthly
electricity consumption. The monthly electricity
consumption data (in Gigawatt hours) of Sri Lanka were
obtained from data library of central bank of Sri Lanka
from January of 2010 to June of 2018.Two different
approaches namely, by ARIMA approach and HoltWinters exponential smoothing approach were used to
develop two statistical models for forecasting electricity
consumption. Model fitting was done by the data from
January of 2010 to February of 2018 whereas electricity
consumption data from March of 2018 to June of 2018
were used to validate the models. | |
